How to Estimate Traffic Based on your Page Ranking

How to Estimate Organic Traffic Based on Your Keyword Rankings

Not all page one rankings are created equal. Some drive thousands of clicks. Others? Barely a trickle.

If you’re investing in SEO, understanding how to estimate organic traffic is critical. Whether you’re reporting to stakeholders, planning a content roadmap, or forecasting ROI, knowing what your rankings are actually worth helps you make smarter, faster decisions, not guesses.

At Impressive, a performance marketing agency built to deliver real outcomes (not vanity metrics), we help brands look beyond impressions and keyword volume to focus on what really moves the needle: traffic, leads, and long-term revenue.

Here’s how to estimate organic traffic based on your keyword rankings, and why this simple method is one of the most powerful tools in your SEO playbook.

What Is Organic CTR by Position?

Let’s start with the basics.

Organic click-through rate (CTR) tells you what percentage of people click on a result after seeing it in the search engine results page (SERP). But that rate depends almost entirely on where you rank.

If someone searches “performance marketing agency” and your site ranks first, nearly 40 out of every 100 people might click. But if you’re down in the 9th or 10th position? You’re probably getting just 2 or 3 clicks.

Here’s a breakdown of the average organic CTR by position:

Position	Average CTR (%)
1	39.8
2	18.7
3	10.2
4	7.4
5	6.3
6	4.1
7	3.5
8	2.8
9	2.5
10	2.1

These benchmarks come from multiple industry studies, aggregated to give you a directional guide. Actual CTR can vary based on factors like branded vs. non-branded terms, the presence of ads or featured snippets, and whether a user is searching on mobile or desktop. Understanding Google CTR by position gives you a clearer picture of how many clicks each ranking can realistically deliver.

Source: Backlinko, MarTech

Why Estimating Organic Traffic Matters

We’re not ranking pages just to admire our position. Traffic estimation helps connect rankings to real business outcomes. It allows you to:

• Forecast SEO performance before investing heavily
• Calculate the revenue upside of moving from page two to page one
• Prioritise keywords with commercial intent and scalable volume
• Make the case for SEO investment using real data
  

Here’s a quick example.

Let’s say a keyword has 1,000 searches per month. It looks exciting, until you realise you rank in position 9, which means you’re pulling in just 2.5% of that traffic. That’s about 25 clicks. Compare that to position 3, which would get you 102 clicks on average. Same keyword, but 4x the traffic.

Understanding this helps you prioritise SEO work that will actually drive results, not just better rankings.

How to Estimate Organic Traffic from Rankings

You don’t need a degree in analytics to figure this out. Just follow these steps:

1. Find Your Keyword Rankings: Use Google Search Console (free), Ahrefs, Semrush, or any rank tracker to see where your pages currently rank.
2. Get Monthly Search Volume: Use Google Keyword Planner, Semrush, or similar tools to check how many monthly searches each keyword gets.
3. Assign Estimated CTR: Match your ranking position to the average CTR using the table above.
4. Multiply Volume by CTR: That’s your estimated organic traffic for that keyword.
5. Repeat for All Keywords: Total it all up to get your overall traffic estimate.

Here’s a quick example:

Keyword	Monthly Volume	Position	Est. CTR (%)	Est. Clicks
performance marketing agency	1000	1	39.8	398
estimate organic traffic	720	3	11.2	81
google ctr by position	480	5	6.3	30
click through rate for keyword rankings	390	7	3.5	14
serp ctr by position	250	10	2.1	5

This is where it gets interesting. Even low-volume keywords can outperform high-volume ones,  if the ranking is strong.

What Affects CTR Beyond Position?

Just because you rank #1 doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed clicks. The SERP CTR by position can change depending on the presence of ads, snippets, or even the device used. The click-through rate for keyword rankings isn’t set in stone; it’s influenced by everything from your title tags to your brand recognition. Here’s what else plays a role:

• Meta Titles & Descriptions: A strong, relevant headline and a clear benefit-driven description = more clicks. It’s not about keywords, it’s about value.
• SERP Features: If the top of the page has a featured snippet, shopping carousel, or 3 paid ads, your organic listing might get pushed down, even in the #1 spot.
• Mobile vs. Desktop: Mobile users scroll less. If you’re not in the top 3, chances are you’re not seen at all on mobile.
• Brand Recognition: A well-known brand in position 4 can often outperform a lesser-known competitor in position 2. People click what they trust.

Branded vs. Non-Branded: Know the Difference

This part’s critical and often overlooked.

Branded keywords (e.g., “Impressive agency”) usually have much higher CTRs, even from lower positions. That’s because people are actively looking for your brand. In contrast, non-branded keywords (e.g., “SEO agency Melbourne”) compete with everyone else on the page.

When estimating traffic, factor this in. Your branded CTR might be 60% in position 1. For non-branded, 30% might be more realistic.

How Traffic Estimates Drive Smarter SEO

Traffic estimation isn’t just a nice-to-have. It helps drive strategy.

At Impressive, we use this method to:

• Score and prioritise keyword opportunities: Why chase position #12 for a term that will bring 15 clicks, when you could move from #5 to #3 for a keyword with real commercial value?
• Build content that aligns with intent: Combine SEO with SEO copywriting that actually drives clicks and conversions.
• Connect traffic to business outcomes Once users land, are they converting? If not, we integrate CRO testing to find and fix the leaks.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Don’t fall into these traps:

• Overvaluing volume: 10k searches doesn’t mean 10k clicks, especially if you rank low.
• Ignoring cannibalisation: Multiple pages targeting the same keyword? You’re splitting CTR.
• Using outdated benchmarks: SERP layouts change. So do user behaviours. Keep your data fresh.
• Forgetting seasonal or local factors: A keyword may spike in December and tank in May. Plan accordingly.

Final Thoughts

Learning how to estimate organic traffic isn’t just about filling a report. It’s about seeing the true potential of your SEO efforts. When you understand the relationship between position, search volume, and CTR, you can stop guessing and start growing.

At Impressive, we help brands use traffic estimates not just to report, but to drive real strategy. From SEO to full-funnel performance campaigns, we’re here to help you turn rankings into results.Ready to build a smarter SEO strategy with real traffic potential behind it?

Book your free strategy session and let’s estimate and capture your next big opportunity.